Project4646 - Climate change in agriculture, food safety and know-how transfer between Germany and the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Regional climate models predict an increase in the average annual temperature of 4 to 6°C by 2074 for Central Asia. According to the IPCC report, the impact of the climate crisis on Kazakh agriculture will further intensify in the future. For each degree of temperature increase, wheat yields are expected to decrease by 6%. Worldwide, Kazakhstan is one of the largest wheat producers and 25% of its working population is employed in the agricultural sector. Therefore, adaptation of Kazakhstan’s agriculture to the impacts of the climate crisis is crucial for the national economy and global food security. Scientists from the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs have studied scientific research on climate change in Central Asian countries between 1991 and 2021. As a result, it can be stated that climate change has been neglected in Central Asian regional studies. Out of a total of 13,488 journal articles in eight key journals for Central Asian research, only 33 articles (0.24%) dealt with climate change or a related topic. Accordingly, there is a lack of recent studies regarding the perception of climate change and its impacts within the Kazakh population.

The aim of “Project4646” is to conduct a feasibility study on the topics “climate change in agriculture, food safety and know-how transfer between Germany and the Republic of Kazakhstan” and comprises two study phases. In the first step, a preliminary study on the perception of climate change by farmers, political decision-makers and agricultural stakeholders is carried out by interviewing focus groups. In the second step, a direct survey of farmers regarding their perception of the climate crisis will be conducted. For the final feasibility study, a multivariate statistical analysis of the collected data will be run. The results will then be made available to Kazakh decision-makers and farmers. In the future, instruments will be developed on the basis of the feasibility study to further strengthen the adaptability of agricultural enterprises in Kazakhstan to the climate crisis.